Zoning dynamics and voting strength may once again determine the outcome of the 2027 general elections in Okitipupa/Irele Federal Constituency of Ondo State, a political analyst, Niyi Arogbo, said.
Arogbo, in an analysis of electoral trends in the constituency, described zoning as a “deliberate arrangement designed to sustain unity, fairness, and political inclusion among the Ikale people,” noting that the practice has remained a stabilising factor over the years.
According to him, the zoning structure, which dates back to 1999, emerged from political negotiations among key leaders following a contest involving Dr. Olakunde and Hon. Sheba Abayomi.
He said, “From that period emerged the now widely accepted formula: ‘Okitipupa do two, Irele do one,’” adding that the arrangement has continued to guide electoral expectations and outcomes in the constituency.
Citing voter statistics, Arogbo pointed to data from the Independent National Electoral Commission’s final register for the 2024 Ondo governorship election, which shows a significant numerical advantage for Okitipupa.
“Okitipupa Local Government Area has approximately 234,138 registered voters, while Irele has about 78,982. These figures clearly establish Okitipupa as the dominant electoral force,” he stated.
He further noted that Okitipupa’s advantage is reinforced by its structural edge, with two state constituencies compared to Irele’s one.
Referencing past elections, the analyst said the 2019 polls reflected the influence of voter strength, as the Peoples Democratic Party candidate, Ikengboju Gboluga, secured 31,042 votes to defeat the All Progressives Congress candidate, Albert Akintoye, who polled 19,875 votes.
On the 2023 elections, Arogbo described the outcome as both decisive and symbolic.
“Prince Jimi Odimayo of the APC polled 70,758 votes to defeat the incumbent, Gboluga, who garnered 35,539 votes. This outcome demonstrated not just voter strength but also political discipline and adherence to the zoning agreement,” he said.
He stressed that one of the most striking aspects of the 2023 election was the role played by Okitipupa voters.
“Notably, Okitipupa voters played a critical role in unseating their own son in honour of the established zoning arrangement. This act underscores the deep respect for collective agreements among the Ikale people,” Arogbo added.
The analyst also referenced historical accounts attributed to the late Senator Onukun, who reportedly affirmed the zoning tradition, linking it to a foundational meeting held at the residence of the late Chief Ogunsan where the consensus was reached.
Looking ahead, Arogbo said the 2027 elections may follow a similar trajectory.
“The existing statistics and political behaviour patterns suggest that Okitipupa Local Government is once again strategically positioned to determine the next representative of the constituency,” he stated.
He added that Okitipupa is likely to produce even stronger electoral numbers, given its voter base and organisational strength.
Advising political stakeholders, particularly the All Progressives Congress, Arogbo warned against ignoring entrenched local dynamics.
“Aligning with the zoning arrangement and respecting the established political culture of the constituency will be crucial to securing victory. Ignoring these dynamics could prove politically costly,” he cautioned.
He concluded that zoning in the constituency has evolved beyond a political convenience into “a tested mechanism for equity, stability, and sustained democratic participation.”
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